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A climate-risk assessment built for decisions, not disclosure theater.

We find the risks that actually matter to your business, prioritize them honestly, and hand your team something they can budget, own, and act on. Every reporting box gets ticked along the way.

Ley 7/2021 Spain CSRD / TCFD EU SB 261 California M&A due diligence
The honest version

Most climate-risk reports try to predict the future. That's the problem.

Companies starting out with climate risk usually treat it as an exercise in prediction, focused on a standard menu of physical and legal risks. But experienced climate modellers and risk analysts know that very little about climate outcomes can be reliably predicted. Climate models were never built to be prediction machines. The real value of the exercise is learning to relate climate risk to your business strategy in a simple, clear way that improves your ability to make good decisions.

Three rules shape every engagement we run:

Rule oneChange the paradigm of risk thinking.

Stop trying to predict everything that could happen and how likely each thing is.

Start focusing on the most important things that may or may not happen, and on improving your odds and your resilience either way.

Rule twoA numeric result is part of the process. It is not the goal.

The goal is equipping your team to make sound decisions about your business priorities, even in the face of deep uncertainty. A number that doesn't change a decision is decoration.

Rule threeEvery phase must make your decision-making simpler and clearer.

If a workshop, model, or report doesn't advance your understanding of climate risk and simplify the next decision, it doesn't belong in the project. We use powerful tools and participatory activities like En-ROADS and Climate Fresk to build your team's skill, not to decorate a deliverable.

Try it yourself

Four kinds of climate risk. Four different responses.

Most assessments treat every risk the same way. In reality, each category calls for a different response. Drag each example into its category, then match the right response approach.

Risk examples
Response approaches

Drag and drop, or tap an item and then tap its slot.

That's the core of it. 🎯

You just did more honest risk categorization than most published climate reports. Imagine what we can do with your actual business.

The methodology

How an engagement runs.

What happens
Build the long list
  • Research plus interviews across your functions: physical, transition, strategic and systemic categories
  • Workshop introducing key concepts of risk thinking and transition strategy
  • Supplemented with climate-model data where it genuinely adds signal
Screen for materiality: three lenses
  • Financial: plausible impact of at least 1.5% of revenue, or 2% of growth, in a single year
  • A material negative impact on the environment or on society
  • Any risk to the health and safety of employees or users: a hard red line
Output
A complete long list, narrowed to the risks that genuinely pass a materiality test, with the reasoning documented.
What happens
Group risks so decisions get easier
  • Grouped by causal mechanism: what actually drives this family of risks
  • Grouped by decision-owner and budget-owner: who decides, who pays
  • Grouped by timeframe, matched to your contract lengths and asset life
Score and rank honestly
  • Validated in working meetings with the functions that own each risk
  • Scored on imminence, short-term severity, long-term severity, and readiness
  • Every risk lands in a clear verdict: watch, plan, act, or urgent
Output
A prioritized top-ten your executives can defend, plus a watch list for everything else, so nothing is silently dropped.
What happens
One-page fact sheet per priority risk
  • A measurable goal and acceptable-risk threshold
  • Mitigation tactics screened: can we do it, would it help, can we afford it
  • Implementation calibrated to our level of certainty about the risk
Financial modelling & reporting
  • Impacts modelled over 5, 10 and 15-year horizons under two NGFS scenarios
  • Transparent, auditable assumptions, with a sensitivity analysis that says how much to trust the numbers
  • TCFD-aligned reporting content, ready for your legal disclosure
Output
Fact sheets, a financial model, disclosure-ready reporting, and a governance map giving every risk an owner, a working group, a budget and indicators to watch.
Honest scope note: integrating climate-risk thinking into your business processes is a long-term effort. A first engagement gets it meaningfully underway and gives your executives something they can act on immediately.
Sample deliverable · a smart-mobility company

Pages from a real risk analysis.

Name removed. Numbers real.

88
risks screened
31
material risks
10
prioritized & budgeted
3
flagged urgent
From the actual deliverable · two NGFS scenarios · 15 years

What climate change could cost, in euros instead of adjectives.

Deliverable page: damage estimates by risk under two scenarios, 2024 to 2038, with total cash impact of 153 to 287 million euros, uncertainty bands and time horizons

A page from the real analysis, name removed. Every figure carries its uncertainty band, and the methodology is transparent and auditable. Click to view full size.

Risk fact sheet · 1 of 10

Every priority risk on one page your board can read.

Extreme heat affecting employee safetyURGENT · 3.25
Goal: zero preventable heat illness. All exposed employees covered by a funded heat plan within 12 months.
Heat safety protocol✓✓✓
Shade & cooling upgrades✓✓✓
Heat-adjusted work scheduling✓✓✓
Certainty: HIGH. Direct evidence this is already happening, so action is justified now.
Owners: CEO · Ops · Health & SafetyIndicators & budget assigned

Operations hub

Dubai, UAE · projected to 2035
Extreme heatV. HIGH
DroughtV. HIGH
Extreme precipitationHIGH
WildfireLOW-MOD

Routine 45°C-plus summers, cooling-dependent operations, and acute water stress in a hyper-arid region.

Headquarters

Milan, Italy · projected to 2035
Extreme heatHIGH
DroughtHIGH
Extreme precipitationLOW-MOD
WildfireLOW

Heatwaves intensifying across the region, drought stressing the water supply, and a glazed building that depends on the grid to stay workable.

Regional office

Mexico City, Mexico · projected to 2035
Extreme precipitationHIGH
DroughtHIGH
Extreme heatMOD-HIGH
WildfireLOW

Urban flooding that blocks access and power, chronic stress on the metro water supply, and air-quality episodes from regional fires.

Site-by-site physical risk is one input among many, because the most salient risk is rarely the most important one. And every priority risk maps to an owner, a working group, a budget, and indicators to watch. That's the governance layer most assessments skip.

Interactive tool · live demo

Move the risk sliders to test each factor and watch the impact on the financials.

Scenario Explorer (best experienced on desktop)
Demo loading…One moment, please.

What good looks like.

AvoidEnsure

For you

Missing the opportunity to demonstrate leadership

You provide clear leadership your colleagues recognize and appreciate

Slipping into check-the-box mode on an issue you personally care about

You make your strongest effort on the issues that matter to you

For your department

Failing to deliver the fundamental protective service your company expects

Your work meaningfully supports the broader business strategy

Failing to motivate action

The organization realizes it wants to act, and that it's already acting

For your company

Trying to predict the future

You get better at making good decisions in the face of uncertainty

Believing you can prioritize risks without a real transition strategy and risk-thinking skills

You understand your organization's role in a world affected by climate change

Who does the work

An IPCC lead author on your file.

100% senior staff. No juniors learning on your budget.

Dr. Mark Trexler

Risk lead

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lead author with 35 years advising 150+ international clients on climate risk. Mark founded the first corporate climate-risk consulting firm in the U.S. and co-authored the first textbook on climate risk for the London School of Economics.

He implemented the first-ever carbon offsetting projects and pioneered the concept of climate neutrality, helping the first companies go net zero in 1996. Clients have included HP, Nike, Suncor, the EPA, and Stonyfield Farm.

Keith Nelson

Consulting lead

As Owner and Director of New Day, Keith assembles subcontracted teams of senior experts to deliver a level of value and expertise traditional consulting firms can't match at anywhere near the price.

15 years managing large teams in complex international environments, on five continents. Executive MBA from ESADE, MA in International Politics from IBEI. Clients have included USAID, Coca-Cola, Merck, Cigna, Siemens Gamesa, and Allianz.

When this stops being optional.

A disclosure law applies to you

Spain's Ley 7/2021 and its draft Royal Decree, CSRD and TCFD-aligned reporting in the EU, California SB 261. If you're required to show your work, it needs to hold up.

  1. Governance: who owns climate in your organization?
  2. Risk processes: how do you identify and prioritize risks?
  3. Risks & opportunities: what are the top risks you face?
  4. Impacts: what could they cost you?
  5. Strategic approach: what are you doing about it?
  6. Metrics & targets: how will you know it's working?

If you can't answer all six, that's the gap we fill.

You're buying, selling, or raising

Diligence teams and investors increasingly require credible evidence that climate risk is understood and managed before they commit. A weak assessment surfaces at exactly the wrong moment.

You're genuinely exposed

Operations, supply, or markets sitting in the path of physical or transition change, and you'd rather see it coming. Rarer than it should be, but it's the best reason on this list.

Not sure how exposed you really are?

That's a good first conversation. A short, no-pressure call. We'll tell you honestly whether this is worth doing, and where to start.

Book an intro call
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